Wednesday 31 March 2010

The positive view...

I'm often accused of being relentlessly negative on Blinkx - if I am, it's because the company doesn't give shareholders much, if anything, to be positive about.

So to balance the books a little I thought I'd post this, from 'jarvis' over on the ADVFN thread:

"If you are expecting to compare Blnx with the likes of Facebook or similar you are missing the point. Blnx is stitching itself into many partners to provide their search facility. Clearest example is BBC IPlayer - you use that but there's no clue that the search is run by Blnx. The nearest similie I can think of is having the same starter motor supplied to every car manufacturer in the world - but Blnx will dwarf even that. All the Analyst's projections are based on the IPO documents and therefore miss the complete change of direction taken by Blnx in setting up Pinball with all it's cash producing facets. Talk about a body swerve - missed by the market completely. I fully expect Blnx to have been cash neutral/positive since the turn of the calendar year. We are now into an upturn and with our high CPM rates, increased partners and hours I am expecting impressive EOY figures. Do I get frustrated by the ground down SP? You bet! Am I annoyed that BLNX choose to get on with the job and leave their shareholders to stew? Too true! That said, do I believe in the business? Absolutely! Will I be selling any shares? Not a snowballs! Might Blnx only reveal part of the picture in May? Yes. Might we have another truly frustrating 12 months? Quite possibly.

For me this is a share to hold onto at all costs as the whole landscape of TV, media, phones, pads etc opens up and needs personally driven and targeted search. This share has the potential to be a personal or family"

I'm not aware that anyone was comparing Blinxk to Facebook? Questioning why Blinkx doesn't have a Facebook app, yes.

And of course we'd all love the above to be true, and for us all to be able to retire in 3-5 years time with our pockets stuffed with cash.

However there are a few awkward questions to be answered first:

1/ Mgmt doesn't seem terribly competent. First there was the Miva fuck-up, which showed that they didn't have a clue how to handle a takeover, then there was the Blinkbox fiasco, which showed that not only did they not have an idea about growing the Blinkx brand (we knew that already), but they couldn't even protect the brand and IP they have.

2/ "the whole landscape of TV, media, phones, pads etc opens up" - very true. Yahoo TV, the iPad, Google TV upcoming - with none of which (as far as we are aware) are Blinkx involved.

3/ If Jarvis is right and Blinkx is set to be absolutely massive in, say, 5 years' time, why aren't the mgmt madly buying shares at these 'giveaway' prices? Why is it that what they SAY is so diametrically opposed to what they DO? None of the Blinkx fanboys can even hazard a guess as to that one...

And if the above is an accurate view, why the secrecy and paranoia from Blinkx mgmt? With Mike Lynch/Autonomy holding just over 20% the chances of a hostile takeover of Blinkx are (sadly) about nil, so why continually hide their light under a bushel? Maybe they've got something to hide. Or even worse, maybe they've got nothing to hide...

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