Tuesday 25 May 2010

I predict a takeover approach by the next interim results...

There must be plenty of investment bank advisors and media moguls poring over the last set of Blinkx results which showed, as we know, EBITDA profitability for the second six months of the year. It therefore seems highly likely that the next set of interim results - in about 6 months - will show clear profitability for the half-year, and that the business will still then be growing very strongly indeed.

When one considers the range of businesses into which Blinkx could slot - from WPP to Bertlesmann, quite apart from the obvious suspects of News Corp, Google, Microsoft, Yahoo, even Apple - it seems fairly inevitable that a takeover approach will be made for Blinkx. My guess is that this will happen well before the next set of results: someone will try and steal Blinkx at a low price (say 60p) before the wider world wakes up to the success story that Blinkx seems to be turning into.

I don't expect such an opportunistic bid to succeed: but when the first approach comes it will light a firestorm of speculation, and if we aren't already there the share price will be into 3 figures very very soon thereafter.

Blinkx management are therefore faced with the choice of keeping the share price rising to keep shareholders happy and onside and not open to a bid, or being taken over for a song.

Let's hope the former. Blinkx seems to have woken up - at long last - to the necessity for good PR, good newsflow and to keep shareholders happy. Let's hope it continues to be so...

3 comments:

  1. I'll drink to that!

    Then again, I'll drink to most anything.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well that's just my prediction, and of course I may be wrong: but then again if I were a MS or a Google, a company to whom competitive advantage is much more important than sitting on a cash mountain, I'd be thinking that maybe I'd better take over AUT _and_ BLNX, carve out all the video search and related IP, then sell on the rump AUT business to SAP or Oracle (or even back to Lynch!) and get most of the purchase price back...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Yep, agreed. Nobody is going to buy blinkx without either an iron clad non compete deal from Autonomy, or most likely they'd buy both. Otherwise, why the fuck bother?

    Apple could use them both, for the search and the entrance into the big enterprise arena. Apple could afford them both 4 times over with cash on hand.

    ReplyDelete