Sunday 17 January 2010

An exercise in self-delusion...

I'm spending much less time than previously on financial bulletin board sites, and especially on ADVFN. Especially when it comes to Blinkx, I've had more than enough of the endless bullshit that is spouted about this stock, and in particular the endless ramping of the stock and excuses for management failings.

This seems to be the mindset of many on those threads who have, in my view, been drinking way too much Blinkx kool aid: they look at the share price, stubbornly stuck at about a third of the IPO price around the 16p mark, and they wonder why it isn't moving, despite the apparent fact that Blinkx is moving up the Comcast and Nielsen ratings. Then, because they seem to be infatuated with company management in general and Chandratillake in particular, they look around for reasons other than management failure for the non-moving share price. They don't seem to consider the following points:

1/ Blinkx may be doing more traffic, but how well (or at all) are they monetising that traffic? Once again I'll quote the adage that 'turnover is vanity, profit is sanity'. Until Blinxk update the markets about their acquisition costs for that traffic, and more generally the running costs of the company (100 employees now across 6 offices - sounds very expensive to me) it's no surprise that the markets don't have a clue how to price Blinkx, and apparently aren't very interested in doing so...

2/ More generally, Blinkx needs to update the market about the progress with the Zango/Pinball acquisition, and if I had my way they'd release a full trading statement (which, if I had my way, they'd do immediately after sacking the current CEO with instant effect and without compensation). I for one find it totally unacceptable that shareholders - the people who own this company - are persistently kept in the dark about how their company is being run. In a landscape as fast-moving as online video it is totally unacceptable just to release figures twice a year, especially after an acquisition like Pinball which has the capability to so transform the company's fortunes (including bankrupting the company if costs do run away with them).

So - ignoring those points - the Blinkx/Chandratillake fanboys look for other reasons why the stock isn't performing. And they persuade themselves that it's because of 'paid de-rampers', mythical entities (allegedly I'm one of them) who are paid to slag companies off on financial bulletin boards and, apparently, get paid by the negative post.

Which only goes to show the endless capacity some people have for self-delusion. The answer to why the Blinx share price isn't moving is staring us all right in the face - lack of clarity around costs, business model, and the competence of senior company executives (especially after the Miva fiasco). And yet to post any reasonable questions about Blinxk delivery and execution (why no iPhone app? Why no Facebook widget? Why no large deal announcements of any kind for many months now?) makes one, apparently, one of these paid de-rampers.

To which there is one obvious response: what's the point in trying to talk down the Blinkx share price when the company's own management are doing such a very VERY good job of it themselves?

[edit] And for those who think I'm a paid de-ramper, I suggest they go and re-read my latest letter to Dr Lynch. Does that letter read as being from someone who wants the share price to go up, or to go down?

You'd have to be pretty dumb to think I'm trying to talk this stock down - but then again, you'd have to be pretty dumb to be happy with the job Blinkx management has done so far of delivering shareholder value...

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