Sunday, 3 January 2010

Kindlemania could suffer from bite of the Apple

A strange thing happened at Christmas. Well, two really. Amazon.comreported that its Kindle eReader had become the "most gifted" product in its vast inventory; and on Christmas Day sales of eBooks on its site exceeded those of physical books. The phenomena are, of course correlated: all those recipients of Kindles needed to buy something they could actually read on the devices. But the combination of the two "facts" has further ratcheted up speculation that 2010 will be the Year of the Kindle and the end is nigh for the printed codex.

...

There is, you see, a shadow on Amazon's horizon. If industry gossip is to be believed, 2010 will also be the year in which Apple releases its Tablet (variously christened the iPad, iSlate and iTab by fevered commentators; not since Moses has a slate been the subject of so much advance speculation). This is a problem for Amazon because while the Kindle is probably the best of the current eReader breed, it is actually a rather clunky and primitive device...

John Naughton in The Observer
"This year is going to surprise us. After nearly two years of financial and economic mayhem, this will be a year of a steadily improving economy. Incredibly, over the last nine months, the stock market has recorded the third biggest rise since 1693, according to the Bank of England, and if it carries on rising just a little more in January it will be the biggest sustained rise for 317 years."

Will Hutton, The Observer

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Comment: So we're in the middle of the biggest stock market rally for a long, long time - and the Blinks share price is stuck at around the 16p mark, a third of the IPO price and at a similar level to where it was about a year ago.

I'll repeat the same question I asked Mike Lynch at the end of my letter to him: IF BLINKX HAVE A GOOD STORY TO TELL OF SUCCESS, WHY AREN'T THEY TELLING IT?

Anyone? No? I thought not...

Saturday, 2 January 2010

Gadget of the week










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From The Times Playlist, 2nd January 2010

New Year letter to Dr Michael Lynch of Autonomy

Dr Michael Lynch,

CEO, Autonomy Corporation,

Cambridge Business Park

Cowley Rd

Cambridge

CB4 0WZ

2nd January 2010

Dear Dr Lynch

You may recall that I wrote to you back in August expressing my concerns about Blinkx management.

You were kind enough to take the time and trouble to reply and assure me that Blinkx was being “extremely well managed”.

Here we are, four months on at the start of a new decade, and I am writing to you again because I regret to say I see absolutely no evidence of the good management you allude to.

I have a number of specific concerns, Dr Lynch:

1/ Transaction Hijacking (TH). Ever since the IPO, TH has been trailed as a source of massive future revenues/profits – and yet on the conference call to accompany the last set of figures Chandratillake stated that TH was now ‘not on the horizon’ – and yet there has been not one word of explanation to shareholders about this apparent u-turn. Why?

2/ SmartShopper. Available for download to anyone who is aware of its existence, but as far as I am aware there has been absolutely no promotion or rollout of the product, not any attempt (again, so far as I am aware) to partner with a large media organisation with tens/hundreds of millions of users (a Yahoo!, a Bertelsmann, a News Corp or similar) to roll SmartShopper out to those users on a revenue-sharing basis. Why?

3/ Blinkx Music. Again, a product which has been built but not (so far as I am aware) promoted, and which seems now to have been overtaken by Vevo. Why spend time, money and effort building something to then not do anything with it?

What kind of effective and competent company management is it which leaves such assets unexploited? If they aren’t core to Blinkx’s business they should be sold – not left to gather dust on the shelf or be overtaken by competitors who do know how to promote products.

Given that your personal stake combined with Autonomy’s recently-enlarged stake in Blinkx exceed 20% of the share capital, one of two things must be true: either that you share my concern on the above points, or that you are aware of the reasons for the issues I raise and are satisfied; but if the latter, and given that under stock market rules all shareholders must be given the same information at the same time, why am I not also aware of those reasons?

I am also extremely curious as to why Blinkx has not seen fit to release an iPhone app or a Facebook video search/sharing widget. There have been approximately 50 million iPhones and iTouches sold to date, and Apple has just celebrated the two billionth download from its app store. Facebook has approximately 350 million users (and plans to treble that as soon as it can), and is the second-biggest referrer to YouTube after Google itself – Facebook users clearly have a hunger to view and share video. Why has not Blinkx taken the opportunity to pluck this low-hanging fruit, spend 3-6 months developing apps/widgets, and then leave it to viral processes to spread word of them? Why, in fact, does Blinkx not seem to have any kind of B2C strategy whatsoever?

I’m afraid, Dr Lynch, that I disagree with your view that Blinkx is being “extremely well managed”. Yes, revenues seem to be doubling every six months or so, but as the last set of figures showed costs are also rising, and in any case Blinkx revenues are increasingly arithmetically, whilst online video seems to be growing exponentially. The company’s management seems to me to be missing some very obvious tricks, and failing to exploit assets they already have. I’m afraid that doesn’t fit my idea of good management.

I will make two last points.

The first, a point I have made previously, is this: if Blinkx has as bright a future ahead of it as Chandratillake never tires of telling any journalist who will listen, why have the management team still, to date, not once bought any shares in the market to demonstrate their confidence in the company’s future and their own future wealth?

The second is this: why is Blinkx’s PR and news management so utterly woeful? If Blinkx has a good story to tell, why on earth isn’t the company telling it?

Yours sincerely,

Facing the Future - article about Facebook from NMA 10th December 2009
























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From New Media Age 10th December 2009

So Facebook is now the second-largest referrer for YouTube after Google itself. There is obviously a huge appetite among Facebook users to consume and share video. And yet Blinkx thinks this is a market not worth pursuing - why else would they not have created a Facebook widget by now?

Clueless, absolutely bloody clueless...